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温度升高2℃时云南森林植被的碳汇潜力将急剧减少

  森林植被对减缓气候变化具有重要的作用。然而气候变化对森林植被的分布、结构和生态功能产生了重大影响。了解气候变化对森林植被的碳储量、碳汇潜力可为评估森林生态系统当前和未来的碳平衡提供依据。 

  版纳植物园全球变化研究组博士研究生周瑞伍,在导师张一平研究员的指导下,选取云南季风常绿阔叶林等7种森林植被作为研究对象,使用Classification and Regression Tree (CART) 模型,利用不同情景模拟,探讨了温度升高对森林植被潜在分布、碳储量及碳汇潜力的影响。研究结果表明:(1) 所研究7种森林植被的现有总面积为 1.86×107 ha,占云南国土面积的48.63 %,但是随着温度的升高,分布面积呈现先增加后减少的变化趋势,特别当温度从1.5 ℃升高到2 ℃时,总面积将减少11 %;(2) 云南主要森林植被总碳储量为871.14 TgC,碳汇潜力为1100.61 TgC,温度升高0.5 ℃时具有最大的碳汇潜力 (达1114.82 TgC),但升温达2 ℃时碳汇潜力将急剧减少(仅为647.24TgC);(3) 半湿润常绿阔叶林对温度升高最敏感,其碳汇潜力随温度升高而减少;暖热性针叶林在各模拟情景中具有较大的碳汇潜力。研究结果进一步提示了减少碳排放,抑制气温升高的重要性;可为评估气候变化对区域森林植被碳汇潜力影响研究提供参考。  

  相关研究结果以Responses of the Carbon Storage and Sequestration Potential of Forest Vegetation to Temperature Increases in Yunnan Province, SW China为题,在线发表在国际期刊Forests上。 

Abstract

The distribution of forest vegetation and forest carbon sequestration potential are significantly influenced by climate change. In this study, a map of the current distribution of vegetation in Yunnan Province was compiled based on data from remote sensing imagery from the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) from 2008 to 2011. A classification and regression tree (CART) model was used to predict the potential distribution of the main forest vegetation types in Yunnan Province and estimate the changes in carbon storage and carbon sequestration potential (CSP) in response to increasing temperature. The results show that the current total forest area in Yunnan Province is 1.86 × 107 ha and that forest covers 48.63% of the area. As the temperature increases, the area of forest distribution first increases and then decreases, and it decreases by 11% when the temperature increases from 1.5 to 2 °C. The mean carbon density of the seven types of forest vegetation in Yunnan Province is 84.69 Mg/ha. The total carbon storage of the current forest vegetation in Yunnan Province is 871.14 TgC, and the CSP is 1100.61 TgC. The largest CSP (1114.82 TgC) occurs when the temperature increases by 0.5 °C. Incremental warming of 2 °C will sharply decrease the forest CSP, especially in those regions with mature coniferous forest vegetation. Semi-humid evergreen broad-leaved forests were highly sensitive to temperature changes, and the CSP of these forests will decrease with increasing temperature. Warm-hot coniferous forests have the greatest CSP in all simulation scenarios except the scenario of a 2 °C temperature increase. These results indicate that temperature increases can influence the CSP in Yunnan Province, and the largest impact emerged in the 2 °C increase scenario. 
Keywords: temperature increasescarbon storageCART modelforest vegetation distributioncarbon sequestration potential

  本研究得到国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0502105),国家自然科学基金(U1602234, 31770528),中国科学院“一三五”专项突破一(2017XTBG-T01),以及中国科学院国际人才计划(2017VCA0036)等项目的资助,并得到了云南大学生态学与环境学院的支持和协助,在此一并致谢。 

  图1. 云南主要森林植被在不同温度升高情景下的空间分布。 

  注:MEB:季风常绿阔叶林;SEB:半湿润常绿阔叶林;MHEB:山地湿性常绿阔叶林;WHC:暖热性针叶林;WTC:暖温性针叶林;TCC:温凉性针叶林;CTC:寒温性针叶林。T0.0、T0.5、T1.0、T1.5、T2.0代表温度升高情景。 

   注:MEB:季风常绿阔叶林;SEB:半湿润常绿阔叶林;MHEB:山地湿性常绿阔叶林;WHC:暖热性针叶林;WTC:暖温性针叶林;TCC:温凉性针叶林;CTC:寒温性针叶林。T0.0、T0.5、T1.0、T1.5、T2.0代表温度升高情景。 

【PDF原文: Responses of the Carbon Storage and Sequestration Potential of Forest Vegetation to Temperature Increases in Yunnan Province, SW China

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